General elections date yet to be announced officially; however the Current National Assembly (NA) will be dissolved on or before March 18, 2013, on this date NA will complete its constitutional tenure of 5 years from its first session of National Assembly elected in 2008 elections.Pakistan recent economic report presenting a very gloomy & groaning picture includes heavy debt burden, widened budget deficiency, mounting corruption & extremely bad governance, unmanageable lawlessness, money-extortion, target killing, kidnapping & ransom, precipitated foreign investment, closure & flight of industries from Pakistan to other states due to serious Electricity & Gas outage (a lifeline for people and the industry) was supposed to tackle on war-footing – No obvious concrete decision - every passing day shortfall multiplying.
Further, withholding macro-economic activity, declining foreign exchange reserves, constant devaluing Pakistani Rupees to American dollar, no recognizable development works during four and half years tenure of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), tussle in between institutions and incoherent among provinces are the factors has pushed the economy at the verge of disaster said by different national & international bodies including the World Bank, NAB’s chairman & Transparency International Pakistan (TIP).Referring the recent election in America - In Pakistan the approach of the people is quite different than the thoughts of American who does not consider the things emotionally & their measurement to weigh the electoral candidates are their competency & closeness with country’s economic policy and ability for correctness being the first and foremost criteria to judge the candidacy contesting in General election. American does not consider persona of a candidate, belongs or ancestral attachment as we do in Pakistan,
In Pakistan ‘election’ is very little on merit, visibly it is heredity. Even the small party can’t survive unless merges with the big wigs or falls in political creed of feudalism or has stake with the family of high rank or political statutre who have been ruling the country though we talk about meritocracy, fairness and transparency with the believe to complete 5 years terms for sustain democracy in Pakistan.
It refers son of Fehmida Mirza who elected for Sind Assembly (March 2nd 2012). There was not anyone else other than son of the former MPA and speaker eligible to be given the ticket.
Apart from, there is a lack of education where people do not have sense and feelings to differentiate in between right and wrong. They blindly casting votes or they do what the community & influential lords ask them in given constituency and voter acts like a robot to put stamp on given electoral sign shown by crafty candidate.
The country having population approx.190 million but only about 84 million Pakistanis have been included in the recently released final electoral rolls (FER-2012), leaving one in seven people without the right to vote.
Free, fair, impartial & transparent election - Despite local police & govt. functionaries’ duties at polling booth and cordoning the area for security reasons yet Frontier constabulary (FCs) & Armey are also called upon to entail further safety to conclude peaceful election - Besides, diplomatic request from European countries to visit and monitor the electoral process.
However notwithstanding such electoral strategy the ‘right to vote’ goes null and avoid when voters cast their votes considering demographic, cast, political creed & ancestral association etc. a suppression in a society where we live.
Now the political parties in Pakistan have been active and asking their workers to start campaign for General Election – Go door to door and convince people to cast their vote said by Nawaz Sharif in his recent speech at Raiwind Lahore.
Skyrocketing speech, stuffy to-do list, sugarcoated words, provocative language and allegation for opponents are on the top. Maligning and mudslinging to show that ‘my hands are cleaned and others are with full of dirt’ has been a common practice, though it is more in South Asian countries yet scribe noticed also during recent election campaign in America in between two nominated president Barack Obama & Mitt Romney.
Convincing people that I am the real lover of the country and countrymen & I will do everything for you which the current govt. has failed - Exposing opponent as a criminal and looter of the county while he himself is the big cheater & plunderer of national wealth which the people of Pakistan has witnessed already – a general phenomenon of politicians..
It is a general trend for every politician while doing electoral visits they want to be chaste and honest but only after he is out of office. But when in power, minister install a taxi meter outside their cabin, clocking up running account of payments that go into their private pockets said by a columnist.
If we go through the federal budget presented by Finance Minister (FM) Hafeez Sheikh in June (2012), he was unaware to give an accurate figure to the nation, he remained uncalculated throughout and quoted all manner of figures and made all sort of predictions about where key macroeconomic variables will stand at the end of June next year (2013)
It’s hard to take any figure or prediction seriously – Will revenue be X or Y, growth rates A or B, budget deficit C or D? The only things that can be said with certainty is that govt. now almost invariably underestimate expenditures and overestimate revenues until reality inevitably intervenes and painful revision is required, mentioned by Finance Minister during his budget reading. (Dawn 3rd June 2012)
In fact the FM himself was unaware or he was intentionally hiding the facts and figure. He had no knowledge that what will be the budget deficiency rate for outgoing financial year (despite remaining in the govt. for four and half years). Will it be 5-1/2% or 7-1/2% If the status of a federal budget goes like this we can’t expect & consider the govt. as competent. Not only was this, FM had nothing to showcase before the nation if economic reforms proved productive.
The PPP manifesto in 2008 was 5Es i.e. employment, education, energy, environment and equality. How much PPP did score in implementing and attained goal up to what extent is the eye-opener to be realistic and can be resilient for next election. .
Here we analyze the economy status starting from 2008 to mid-2012, irregularities in every economic sector are obvious, the profile is very shaky and depressing. It looks that gradually the control over multiple economic fronts PPP has been losing its grip and resulting a big yawn in revenues and liability is imminent.
Again the Foreign exchange reserves, rising debt-burden, export and import, balance of payment, status of fiscal and monetary policy two important avenues where govt. possibly brings economies stability and prosperity to the country. Current business conditions and the long-term outlook for growth of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the level of unemployment and the level of inflation are the major elements of macroeconomics which FM did not highlight while presenting national budget in June 2012.
The study encompasses social, political and economic status of the country where unbridled corruption has marred the face of politics in Pakistan not only the performance of govt. has pushed the country on the brink of bankruptcy but most of the state-owned institutions have lost its integrity rather proved failure in discharging their onerous responsibility to serve the people. The reason assigned that govt. did not patronize the institution so how the institution will move further to serve people.
It refers Pakistan Railway who burst that we are not given diesel from Pakistan State Oil (PSO) so how the train will move, when contacted PSO, the authority (PSO) replied that billions of amount are due to Govt. so how PSO can supply diesel to Pakistan Railway unless their bills are cleared. This is one instance of Pakistan Railway who stopped their services and later restored after a heavy hue and cry in media.
Efforts from Supreme court of Pakistan - Supreme Court of Pakistan took lead to purge society with plague of economic corruption and cleansed the Parliament with other constitutional errors by disqualifying 11 MNA & MPA for holding dual nationality & fake degrees; fake income tax return submitted to Election Commission in 2008 General election - Opening the cases of illegal appointment, selection without merit, premature promotion, transfer and degradation, misappropriation & forgery cases in different govt. institution.
Dismissal of Prime Minister - Dismissal of Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani (in office) disobeying Supreme Court instruction for not writing letter to Swiss authority against President Mr. Asif Ali Zardari to reopen the graft case of $60 million dollar an old NRO order which was suspended by Swiss authority when Asif Ali Zardari had assumed office in 2008. However in 2009 the Supreme Court overthrew the NRO, a political amnesty that had frozen investigations into the president and other politicians ordered to reopen the case.
The allegations against President Zardari date back in 1990s, when he and his late wife, former premier Benazir Bhutto were suspected of using Swiss bank accounts to launder $12 million allegedly paid in bribes from the company who was seeking customs inspection contracts.
Letter to Swiss authority - Though the letter to Swiss authority has been dispatched through foreign ministry of Pakistan as per contents advised by Supreme Court yet there is no certainty that the letter will not prey for time-bar followed by Swiss authority constitution (press report 5th Nov 2012)
Saying of President of Pakistan - Transparency and accountability are two pillars on which a corruption-free edifice rest –I got this candid-extract from Benazir Income support program where President of Pakistan pledged to support. If we take this word as a ‘solemn affirmation’ then there should not have any corruption in the country but in practicality is quite reversed rather nauseating and disgusting.
Nawaz Sharif involvement in huge corruption - The trends to loot & undermine the national economy does not stick to Mr. Asif Ali Zardari (President of Pakistan) but Mr. Nawaz Sharif (Opposition leader in current assembly) also has been perpetrating massive corruption with socking and immoral acts during his premiership. He also has been plundering national wealth, subjugating and exploiting for satiation.
However the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has started investigations against the Sharif-Brothers in$32 million money laundering a press report.Nawaz Sharif and his cronies have been concentrating their political engagement with the only motive to plunder Pakistan’s wealth being their sole agenda. NAB spokesperson Zafar Iqbal further added that Nawaz Sharif expanded his business empire by misusing his authority as Chief Minister Punjab and Prime Minister Pakistan. And in order to gain financial benefits, he even manipulated laws and changed policies.
How ruthlessly Nawaz Sharif dogged and played with the constitution of the country, he did what he wanted and suits him and his family without caring the needs of poor segment living around his castle, needs a bread, a glass of cleaned water, a place to live, school for their poor children, electricity and gas lines in the territory who still use jungle wooden to fuel for cooking. Are they blind or unaware with the painful condition where the basic needs are inaccessible to the inhabitants?
Is it not shamelessness that Nawaz Sharif made a paradise an Empire in Raiwind Lahore on the cost of Pakistan money said by an angry senior citizen, criticizing over NAB press report?
Likewise, in a bid to avoid accountability, the Nawaz Sharif Government amended “The Ehtasaab Act” and made it effective from “1990″ instead of “1985″ as proposed in the original text of the “Ehtasaab Act” prepared by the interim government of caretaker Prime Minister (Late) Mairaj Khalid (1996-97). And by bringing this change he cunningly saved his tenure of Chief Minister Punjab (1985-88) from accountability.
PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif made financial gains of $418 million during his twice stints as Prime Minister of the country, according to a book entitled Capitalism’s Achilles Heel by Raymond W Baker. The book is a dossier on the corruption of most dominated political families in the history including Nawaz Sharif that how they misappropriated the national exchequer for their own benefits and did not do anything for the betterment and advancement for their own people.According to the book, at least $160 million were pocketed by Nawaz Sharif during his first stint as the Prime Minister in the 1990, from a contract to build a highway from Lahore, his home town to Islamabad, the nation’s capital.
Current corruption rate in the country - Current corruption rate in the country as per NAB chairman being enjoyed by govt. authority ranging Rs.6-7 Billion per day. Adding that during PPP regime 4-1/2 years the unbridled corruption has tuned at Rs.8.5 Trillion or USD $94.0 Billion as per Transparency International Pakistan (TIP) reports.
How the country can attend the basic needs of their people upon whose vote the leaders arrived into the assembly but instead to help the masses they are stuffing their own pocket said NAB chairman. As per TIP the real impact of corruption in the country’s economy is far more than what is generally estimated or what is formally uncovered.
As per one American analyst - Pakistan does not need even a single penny from outside if their political leaders bring the looted amount back to the country & even it can pay off its trillion amount of debt. There is a need to check the menace of corruption and bind legally such fraudsters to return the national wealth (to national valet) so that Pakistan's shabby economy can stand and move ahead to progress and prosper without reliance on heavy indebtedness.
There has been no check on corruption as the anti-corruption institutions like the National Accountability Bureau and Federal Investigation Agency instead of checking corruption have been siding with the corrupt. These institutions have been helping the corrupt to get off the hook by distorting and mutilating the evidence in favor of the influential accused said by NAB chairman.
The below figure given by TIP says that massive corruption is an explosion for the country heightening every passing year during the tenure of PPP govt. a tremendous bang for the country. Rs390 billion in 2008 - Rs450 billion in 2009 - Rs825 billion in 2010 and Rs.1100 billion in 2011 under the present regime - the total of identified cases of corruption comes at Rs.2, 765 billion.
In addition, TIP further reported that Finance Minister (of present regime) himself confirmed corruption in FBR of over Rs500 billon per year making total Rs.2, 000 billion.
Auditor General of Pakistan pointed out Rs315 billion corruption in 2010 - Public Accounts Committee recovered Rs115 billion in 30 months till 2011 - Circular debt is Rs190 million - KESC was given Rs55 billion illegal benefits per annum since 2008
The state owned enterprises like PSO, PIA, Pakistan Steel, Railways, SSGC, SNGC are eating away Rs150-300 billion per annum - Tax to GDP ratio in 2008 was 11%, which in 2011 has reduced to 9.1% instead of being increased.
Debt burden - Pakistan’s federal government’s debt obligations have almost doubled during the tenure of the incumbent government of Pakistan People’s Party. Latest official statistics show that the country’s debt has mushroomed to Rs12.37trn as of end August 2012.
In June 2008, the central government’s total debt stood at Rs6.1trn. Over the next four years and two months, a sum of Rs6.3trn has been added to the center’s debt: it currently stands 103 per cent higher than the level in June 2008.
The sharp rise in the debt burden has been attributed to rupee depreciation and large budget deficits incurred due to heftier power subsidies and interest payments on debt stock.
Debt servicing - For the current fiscal year, the government has estimated spending of Rs1.2trn in servicing debts and repaying foreign loans, according to the finance ministry. The amount to be spent on debt servicing and foreign loan repayments is roughly half of projected tax revenues for the current fiscal year, which indicates significant stress on the budget due to reckless domestic borrowing.
Currently, the government is financing development projects by borrowing money from commercial banks and printing more currency: the means adopted are not only inflationary, but are also adding to the debt burden indirectly as well.
As per SBP (state Bank Pakistan) that ballooning debt has heightened the risks of refinancing the debts already held.
A recent report released by the IMF warns of similar implications. The IMF has forecasted that the country’s gross financing needs for the current fiscal year will come to about 31 percent of GDP, which comes to roughly Rs7.4trn.
Short term borrowing - According to the SBP, short-term borrowings have risen to Rs4.13trn as of end August 2012 - an increase of Rs2.5trn or 152.4 percent since June 2008.
Domestic debt - Meanwhile, domestic borrowing has increased to Rs7.8trn since 2008 - a sharp surge of 137.8 per cent or Rs4.5trn.
External debt - External debt during the last four years has also risen by almost 65 percent. As against external obligations of Rs2.8trn in June 2008, the central government’s total external debt (excluding the IMF loan) has now swelled to Rs4.6trn according to the central bank.
International lending agencies like the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank are urging the government to implement meaningful reforms aimed at getting the economy back on track.
Foreign exchange reserves - As per State Bank of Pakistan, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $56 million to $14.333 billion during the week ended October 26 from $14.389 billion a week ago.
Analyst fear that the reserves would drain further in the coming days on account of high international oil prices and large external debt repayments. Steep fall in foreign exchange reserves and value of the rupee might have serious impact on the outcome of the forthcoming general elections.
And this is not the only negative indicator as the rupee that is on the continuous decline for the last three years has lost its value further and settled at 96 a dollar which is a cause for serious concern to the people as rupee-dollar parity stood at 58 or 60 throughout the tenure of the Musharraf Government despite different odds and challenges
Foreign exchange reserves with commercial bank - The foreign exchange reserves held by commercial banks also declined by $33 million to $4.527 billion as against $4.560 billion a week ago
Inflation & unemployment - Inflation is hitting people hard and unemployment rate is on the rise due to lack of investment and closing down of industries on account of law and order situation and energy shortages.
Export status - The current govt. taking credit for remarkable increase in exports but everyone knows that it is not because of increase in productivity or volume but merely because of increase in unit price in the international market fetching more money for our exports.
Import status - The present Government has allowed liberal imports and that is why import bill is assuming staggering dimensions and it is because of remittances by overseas Pakistanis that the economy is still standing on its feet.
Electricity and gas outage - Regular Electricity outage from 12-16 hours on daily basis and disruption of gas supply across the country despite assurance form Govt. that menace of load shedding very soon will be ended
A general status of Rural Punjab & Sindh province - Most of the town/ units & Taluka are still without Pukka Road - No sewerage system - No cleaned water to drink, dwellers still fetching water from long distance or they have combined tube well to meet their needs - No electricity & gas lines, people still using cow-dung for fuel to cook. No govt. hospital into a radius of 100 kilo meter to meet any emergency resulting loss of human lives.
School status in Punjab - In interior Punjab school is there, inaugurated by MPAS or MNAs their engraved names are visible but school has been just a name. In some area boundary wall is there but no table & chair - Broken window pan - Swinging electrical circuit board and wires - School are without door and window - Damaged wall - Peeling off plastered from ceiling giving life threat - Number of teacher and student are very minimal – In some area empty school without student and teacher, keeping cattle inside the school & the Influential of the area parking their vehicles - Harvested crops are also stored it refers video report from one of the private TV channel.
Status of one hospital (Ram hospital in Lahore) - One of the hospital known as Raam Govt. hospital in Lahore (Punjab province) at one bed 2-3 patients sleeps, internal condition of hospital is deteriorated, very shocking at the callous disregard of human lives - Non-availability of medicines - Empty shelves - No incubator - No ventilators - Oxygen apparatus are faulty and un-repaired - No x-ray machine and scanners for patient – Unhygienic - Filthy and stains on the wall & floor, even patient bed sheets & pillow full with stink - Odor in the hall - Stuffed dustbin - Broken stretcher - Malfunctioned medical equipment.
At one bed 3-4 new born babies are slept - Patient care taker pumping a rubber bladder to generate oxygen connected with the nose of the child - No ceiling fan – No exhaust and submerged toilets - This is the terrible condition of Raam govt. Hospital in Lahore, refers an interview with young doctors works in the same hospital covered by private TV channel
School status in Sindh - Condition of Govt. school in Sindh rural and urban are insignificant, some of the school in urban area has been converted into marriage hall. No teacher no student.
Education sector which has a very hefty envisaged-budgets from Govt. & funded by other donor agency but the status of school across the provinces are pathetic & clumsy has turned into a ghost institution.
The billions of amount-allocated on school-project every year but neither quantitatively nor qualitatively have any changes been noticed. It’s a complete failure - No check and balance where the amounts go?
According to recent report of Sind Ministry of Education – 12,794 school are shelter less – 34,386 are without electricity – 26,669 school does not have four sided boundary wall -23,349 does not have wash room & 25,237 have no access to drinking water. The concerned MNA & MPA needs to look into it and give their constituency a better life instead to seek vote only said by a disappointed teacher who has been approaching repeatedly to local authority for repairing.
School in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (former NWFP) - Status of Schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa, the number of school closed in the province in 2008-09 was 477 which include 358 girls school - According to report EMIS in 2009 that during 2009-10 the number of closed school were 512 – Refers the record of 2010-11 stood at 417 which further reduced to 350 according to recent report of education department.
The reason of school closure assigned social disputes, illegal occupation of school building, and dispute over employment stated by Provincial Minister Elementary & Secondary Education Sardar Hussein Babak.
During earthquake in 2005, there were 612 schools those were pulled down to clean the area, despite reminder from inhabitants & by MNA/ MPA with federal govt. no action has been taken so far. Boys and girl are studying in the tents & without tents – not mention for capricious weather condition.
The number of such schools was 332 in Mansehra, 153 in Battagram, 62 in Abbottabad, 75 in Shangla. The amount for renovation had been estimated Rs.3 billion by then govt. which still could not approve to reconstruct the bulldozed school (Dawn 14th Aug 2012).
Non-payment of electricity & Gas bills by MNA/ MPA & Govt. Institutions - A chronic issue that electricity bill from Govt. offices/ Ministries offices/ President and Prime minster Houses & Hostels at federal and provincial level are not paid. It tunes to multi-billion of amount are due to the govt. if such recovery is ensured this amount can be utilized to repair the faulty power plant and more power generating unit can be installed in the country - Shamelessness and wantonness of MNAs/ MPAs to pay off their electricity and gas bill so that the curse of electricity may curbed immediately.